Simon Cowell has described the Rage Against The Machine Facebook campaign as ’stupid’, but it still presents a very live threat to Joe McElderry’s divine right to Christmas Number One.

The X Factor winner is usually a banker for Christmas No. 1, but Joe’s cover of the Miley Cyrus single ‘The Climb‘ only has a 50% chance of claiming the prestigious top spot. Betfred are best-priced at evens, about an event that would not normally be a betting opportunity.

The Rage Against The Machine single (Killing In The Name Of) has been all the rage in the betting, and is now the 4/5 favourite from an early show of 6/1 at the beginning of this month.

Paddy Power offer a generous 1/18 that RATM wins in the market without The Climb. Bet £18,000 to win £1,000, and your Christmas will be sorted.

In another popular festive market, William Hill and Ladbrokes have reported decent money for a White Christmas. Snow in London on the 25th is now a 9/4 possibility with Betfred and Stan James. Paddy Power won’t tempt any punters with 66/1 about Big Ben to stop working due to the frost!

Ricky Whittle is favourite to win this year’s Strictly Come Dancing, and can be backed at 8/11.

bookies.com compares specials markets online:

2009 Xmas Number One Betting Odds

Winner without X Factor Betting

Strictly Come Dancing Betting

White Christmas Betting

We’ve only had one episode of Britain’s Got Talent, but that hasn’t stopped the bookies from ducking a short-priced favourite.

Susan Boyle stunned judges with I Dreamed A Dream on Saturday’s show, and already has her backers. The 47 year old had been available at 4/1 with totesport earlier, but is now best-priced at 9/4 with Boylesports.

No doubt that Boyles will conjure up some imaginative publicity in time - they share the same name!

9/4 is an extremely short price given that we don’t know Susan’s competition, but she created such a tidal wave on Saturday that we could see her go odds-on.

The unemployed virgin will be well supported by Scotland and has an incredible voice.

Normally at Bookies Blog, we like to oppose the short-priced favourites in the specials markets - but time and time again they do the business. For every Ray Quinn (Dancing On Ice) there is a Verne Troyer (CBB 2nd), so punters should tread with caution.

Dance act Flawless are 5/1, but Susan will probably encounter tougher opposition later on in the show.

Paddy Power bet 1/3 that Susan signs a deal with Simon’s record label. Simon will be very keen to cash in on Susan’s image and voice - 2007 BGT winner Paul Potts has already pocketed a cool £6m.

bookies.com is your best bet for comparing odds for specials markets.

Britain’s Got Talent 09 Betting

FHM 100 Sexiest Women Betting

Poet Laureate Betting

Eurovision Betting

BAFTAs Betting

Odds of 14/1 on the Queen to abdicate are shocking, it should be greater than 100/1! That said, Paddy Power are also running several specials, and have reminded us of what you could’ve got last year if you had lumped on:

8/11      Spice Girls were the first band to split

8/11      Mucca walked away with less than £50million of Paul McCartney’s fortune

15/8      Lewis Hamilton was crowned 2008 F1 champion

5/1        Team GB won more than 12 gold medals at the Olympics

11/2      Barack Obama was elected the 44^th US President

6/1        Madonna and Guy Ritchie were the first celebrity couple to file for divorce

12/1      Peaches Geldof was the first singleton to get married

18/1      Ibiza was Wayne Rooney’s chosen stag weekend destination

If you were pressing me to take one of Skybet’s specials, I’d probably take 10/1 about Chris Moyles being sacked from Radio 1. He has been on thin ice for a while now, and who knows what 2009 holds? Will we finally capture Osama bin Laden at 5/1?!

Perhaps one of the bets of 2009 is a General Election to be held in June 2009 at 4/1 with Ladbrokes. Gordon Brown may want to capitalise on the Obama visit or simply cash in before we find out how bad the economy really is.

I am looking forward to the Cheltenham Festival next year, as well as the Six Nations. Also of interest are The Tour de France, The Ashes, Wimbledon and the Champions League.

2009 SPECIALS:

X Factor Final 3 all have UK no. 1 singles 20/1

Lindsay Lohan and Samantha Ronson marry in civil ceremony 6/4

UK win Eurovision 16/1

X Factor Winner sing on American Idol as guest 3/1

Lewis Hamilton and Nicole Sherzinger marry 10/1

UK come last in Eurovision 3/1

Louis Walsh not to be X Factor judge for 2009 series 3/1

Kate Moss marry Jamie Hince 3/1

UK get ‘nul point’ in Eurovision   10/1

Robbie Williams replace Dannii Minogue as judge on X Factor 2009 5/1

Pete Doherty and Kate Moss get back together officially   4/1

Amy Winehouse and Blake Fielder Civil to divorce 1/3

Simon Cowell not be X Factor panellist in 2009 3/1

Paul McCartney remarry 4/1

Kerry Katona and Mark Croft divorce 2/1

S Cowell announce he’ll stand as candidate in next election 20/1

Britney Spears marries again    4/1

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie split    5/1

Simon Cowell come out as gay 50/1

Queen not record Xmas message 5/1

David Cameron have his bike stolen 6/1

X Factor Winner have 3 consecutive no. 1 singles by end 08    7/1

Chelsey and Harry get engaged 4/1

David Cameron grow a moustache   33/1

X Factor Winner not go straight to no. 1 official UK album chart with debut by end 08  5/6

Prince William or Prince Harry to marry 6/1

Madonna & G Ritchie get back together 50/1

X Factor 09 winner get Xmas no. 1 2009 1/4

Prince William and Kate Middleton get engaged 2/1

Osama Bin Laden be captured   5/1

X Factor winner 09 NOT get Xmas no. 1 2009 11/4

Queen to abdicate 14/1

Ant and Dec their get own individual TV shows 33/1

X Factor Final 3 all have UK no. 1 albums in 2008 8/1

Prince William and Kate Middleton split 5/2

Chris Moyles sacked from Radio 1 breakfast show 10/1

Diana Vickers and Eoghann Quigg release duet 3/1

Prince William become King 50/1

Russell Brand reinstated as Radio Two DJ 50/1

Cheryl Cole win FHM Sexiest Woman in the World 5/1

Terry Wogan Retire from his BBC Radio 2 breakfast show 6/4

Great white shark be caught off British shores 20/1

Girls Aloud split 5/6

Sports personality win Strictly Come Dancing 09 6/4

Gordon Brown be PM on 31/12/09 2/7

Leona’s fastest selling debut album record broken (375,872 in first week) 5/1

John Sergeant replace Bruce Forsyth as SCD host 10/1

David Cameron be PM on 31/12/09 11/4

Leona Lewis win best UK female at Brits 2/1

Anton Du Beke replace Bruce Forsyth as SCD host 6/1

Nick Clegg be PM on 31/12/09 100/1

Victoria Beckham have baby girl 6/1

Geri Halliwell do Strictly Come Dancing 09 8/1

Will Young announce his intention to stand as candidate in next GE 20/1

Cheryl and Ashley Cole have a baby 3/1

Bruce Forsyth NOT host Strictly Come Dancing 2009 5/4

PM to announce referendum on joining Euro 8/1

Charlotte Church has another baby 4/1

Jonny Vegas win SCD 09 16/1

UK adopt Euro as official currency 16/1

Posh & Becks adopt a child 10/1

Peter Mandelson win SCD 09 33/1

David Cameron arrested under anti-terrorism legislation 33/1

Angelina Jolie adopt again 2/1

Robbie Williams sing on a new Take That release (not old song)   3/1

The FTSE to be above 6000 on 31/12/09 6/1

Celeb Big Brother taken off air permanently mid series 10/1

Totally dry Wimbledon fortnight 10/1

The FTSE to be above 5000 on 31/12/09 5/4

Kate Winslet win Best Lead Actress Oscar 2/1

Rain every day Wimbledon 33/1

Congestion charge be introduced in a UK city by public vote 4/1

Heath Ledger win Best Supporting Actor at Oscars 1/4

David Beckham play in Premier League 3/1

JLS have been described as the best band the show has ever seen, and have been cut once more into 7/1. The boy band from London do offer some each way value, and also a decent trading opportunity on Betfair over the next two weeks or so.

Recommendation:

2pts 7/1 JLS Outright Winners

My word have things changed! Diana was axed last weekend following a string of poor performances, meaning that Alexandra is the hot favourite to win. Let’s take a look at the remaining 3 contestants to see if there’s any value still to be found:

8/13 ALEXANDRA BURKE

Alexandra has been described as the most talented contestant for weeks now, and Diana’s eviction has seen her go odds-on from evens before last Saturday’s show. In the straight forecast market, favourite backers may like totesport’s 15/8 on 1st Alexandra - 2nd JLS. Bet365 also offer 2/7 that she beats Eoghan in a match bet - ‘free money’ I hear you say. She should take all the beating, and Simon Cowell has backed her to win. If she got turned over it wouldn’t be all that surprising, so i think she is too short to back. Performs with Westlife.

7/2 JLS

Saturday night made for some sensational in-running betting on Betfair. After the contestants had sung their 2 songs, Diana was the new 6/4 favourite to be evicted, even though JLS were still the 8/1 outsiders in the outright market. Layers clearly had their reasons, but to me it was a no-brainer. JLS were 1.70 on Betfair to be evicted before Diana had another shocker. I haven’t traded out my strong JLS position yet and I don’t intend to, in fact I am disappointed not to have taken the 10/1 that was readily available before Saturday’s show.

Aside from me, there have been other JLS supporters who have been backing them with their wallets and this week’s 9/2 and 4/1 has gone. I am particularly re-assured that they have displaced the blasted Eoghan as second favourites and they could prove popular on the night given that they’ll perform with Rihanna.

9/2 EOGHAN QUIGG

Those unfamiliar to the show should note that his first name is pronounced ‘Owen’. They should also note that he is dreadful. He is set to sing with Boyzone and has been very weak in the betting, cut to 11/10 in the next eviction market. I am tempted by those odds, because my hatred of him means that he’s clearly an odds-on shot. As I’m not ‘greening out’ of the JLS position, I won’t increase my liability by backing Eoghan to be evicted. I must be a rational punter and not bet with my heart!

Eoghan’s voice was overwhelmed by the backing singers on Saturday, and he just doesn’t do it for me. I cannot rely on his Irish support and won’t be indulging in Boylesports’ specials. They Irish firm make him 6/2 to record a duet with Diana in 2009, 16/1 to join an Abba tribute band or 2/1 to shave his head.

SkyBet have some X Factor specials, which offer typically poor value. You can get 33/1 that a finalist falls over on stage this weekend, or 5/1 that the winner is dropped by Sony BMG by the end of 2009. I can’t find any stunning bets for this weekend’s show, as all the contestants are pretty skinny prices by this stage.

X Factor Winner Betting

X Factor Winning Manager Betting

X Factor Straight Forecast Betting

X Factor Next Eviction Betting

X Factor Specials Betting

Danni Minogue Replacement Betting

Dannie Minogue to Continue Betting