Only 5 runners have been declared for Saturday’s Betfair Ascot Chase, after Knowhere and Monet’s Garden were withdrawn. The Grade 1 Chase is on BBC1 at 2.15pm, and will be run over 2m5f.

Yet another feature race with poor each way terms – the bookmakers must be licking their lips.

I will be taking on 6/5 favourite Voy Por Ustedes, even though he is miles ahead of his other runners in terms of ratings. The heavy ground is a huge concern for favourite backers, but Voy Por will like the drop back in trip after finishing 3rd in the King George behind Kauto Star.

The stiff track is a minor negative, added to the fact the Alan King doesn’t have a great record at the track. Voy Por is the 7/2 favourite for the Ryanair Chase.

The obvious alternative is David Pipe‘s Tamarinbleu, who is a 2/1 chance. Pipe has a habit of taking the feature races, even when his stable appears to be suffering in form. Tamarinbleu will go well after his break, and he looked the likely winner when finishing 2nd to Snoopy Loopy in the Betfair Chase (Haydock).

He ran below par in the King George, but that was when the stable was mis-firing. He is likely to run from the front, so you could even do a back-to-lay on Betfair.

7/2 Gwanako is the mounth of Ruby Walsh, and is a progressive young chaser. He won at Ascot last time out, albeit in a Class 2 affair. Paul Nicholls admits he will need to improve greatly to trouble the favourite, but the form from that Ascot race has worked out well, with Miss Mitch winning in January.

50/1 The Sawyer completes the field, but cannot he overlooked. He needs to find plenty according to the ratings, but he won on heavy ground in January, and then almost went on to score a hat-trick. See what the market thinks nearer to post time.

There are some other interesting races on the card, including the Novices’ Hurdle at 2.45pm. There isn’t much talent in the field, and I will be backing 11/8 WENDEL, who was a good 3rd to Medermit over 2m in a Grade 2 event. Should like the extra distance and should be too good for Chariot Charger.

Recommendation:

8pts @ 7/5 Wendel (Centrebet – Ascot 2.45)

bookies.com compares odds between bookmakers for antepost horse racing:

Haydock Gold Cup Betting

Betfair Ascot Chase Betting

Ryanair Chase Betting
Cheltenham Gold Cup 09 Betting

11/8 Kauto Star

Kauto was odds-on to win his 3rd King George before he slipped up in the Betfair Chase, but drifted to a general 6/4. Kauto is now best priced at 11/8 to win the race, as punters simply cannot oppose a horse with Cheltenham Gold Cups in the bag. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has been luke-warm as of late, and his double on Saturday was eclipsed by Nicky Henderson‘s big race 103/1 treble. Henderson won about £250k in prize money, meaning that some firms are opening books on the Champion Trainer market.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Kauto Star, but 11/8 is a bit short for a horse who has lost 3 out of his last 4. He has been turned over by Our Vic and Snoopy Loopy in this field, and Tamarinbleu travelled so well at Haydock that he asked questions of Sam Thomas early on.

Ruby Walsh is the man in the saddle this time, who knows Kauto’s quirks much better, and is capable of handling the big race pressure. Nicholls won’t campaign Kauto Star at Haydock again, because he doesn’t like the new chase track. Kempton Park suits Kauto much better, because the emphasis is on speed. 

4/1 Voy Por Ustedes

Very talented but question marks over whether he will stay the 3m for Alan King. If he does to good effect, expect to see him leap to the fore of the Gold Cup market. I say that because ‘Voy Por’ is very classy and even beat Master Minded at Aintree. Choc Thornton is one of my favourite jockeys and I am tempted to let him carry my money for this one, after he appeared to like the 2m4f at Aintree that day. One to consider.

8/1 Air Force One

Has been well supported from 12s recently, probably because the ground and track will suit him. I’m reluctantly leaving him out of calculations, because I don’t feel he has the quality required to win at this level. He was 2nd in the Hennessy, finishing in front of Snoopy Loopy. Trainer Charlie Mann regards him highly and will be hoping for a big run.

9/1 Imperial Commander

This represents a massive step up in class for Imperial Commander, and we would’ve known more about him if the Boylesports Gold Cup hadn’t been abandoned. His last run was the win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, after which many thought he was a potential superstar. The form has been well advertised by Barber’s Shop, but the form of the Twiston-Davies yard is a slight concern. NTD has had only 1 winner from 43 runners, meaning that Imperial Commander has drifted out from 7s. I’d rather look elsewhere for a horse with proven class at the top level.

10/1 Our Vic

Has been supported into 10s from a high of 30/1, mainly after trainer Pipe has reported that he has been in blistering form and has schooled well with Grand National winning jockey Timmy Murphy. The Pipe yard is now on the cold list, but they have a knack for taking these big races. Our Vic’s last season reads 2211 and I would rather back him than Imperial Commander or Air Force One, who aren’t proven at this level. Perhaps Our Vic wants less than 3m but he was 2nd in the race last season. According to the lad who rides him out, he is ‘better than ever’

21/1 Tamarinbleu

Ran very well fresh in the Betfair Chase, only to be done on the line by Snoopy Loopy, who ate up the ground. I love a front-runner and I think that Pricewise antepost selection (at 20/1) will give a good account for himself around Kempton. He travelled much better than Kauto Star in his last race, and I fancy that he’ll turn the tables on Snoopy Loopy after his break since the November race.

22/1 Snoopy Loopy

According to Peter Bowen he has been schooling well and he was supplemented for the race at a cost of £10,000. His record of consistently placing (or better) at the highest level makes Snoopy a terrific each way bet. When will the bookies take note? He was weak in the betting for the Peterborough Chase, in which he finished 2nd to Monet’s Garden at 9/1 over a trip which was too sharp for him. For a horse that keeps improving, the price is insulting. Oppose at your peril. 

50/1 Albertas Run

We tipped Tony McCoy’s Albertas Run for the Henessy last month, but he was pulled up on a day when McCoy scored a four-timer. Jonjo O’Neill has said that key to his run is the ground, which was unsuitable last time. If he gets the good ground that is forecast, he could run a very big race indeed. 

53/1 Briareus

One for the Balding team, he is a huge horse but a decent jumper. He won at Kempton over 2m in a Class 2 Chase, but connections are confident that he will stay the 3m. With decent form in the book that price looks a bit big to me, although I agree that others are more appealing.

61/1 Exotic Dancer

Is 5/1 for the Lexus Chase; this is a horse that is extremely profitable to oppose. We advised a place lay in the Betfair Chase but be warned, the Lexus doesn’t look as strong this year.

1000/1 Mont Misere

Pulled up at Huntingdon and very easy to discount.

Recommendation:

I’d rather just watch this intriguing race, but if pressed for a selection, I’d go for Our Vic, each way. That said I’ll still be supporting Kauto Star.

1pt each way @ 10/1 Our Vic

King George VI Betting

Christmas Hurdle Betting

Coral Welsh National Betting

Lexus Chase Betting

Paddy Power Chase Betting