Simon Cowell has described the Rage Against The Machine Facebook campaign as ‘stupid’, but it still presents a very live threat to Joe McElderry’s divine right to Christmas Number One.

The X Factor winner is usually a banker for Christmas No. 1, but Joe’s cover of the Miley Cyrus single ‘The Climb‘ only has a 50% chance of claiming the prestigious top spot. Betfred are best-priced at evens, about an event that would not normally be a betting opportunity.

The Rage Against The Machine single (Killing In The Name Of) has been all the rage in the betting, and is now the 4/5 favourite from an early show of 6/1 at the beginning of this month.

Paddy Power offer a generous 1/18 that RATM wins in the market without The Climb. Bet £18,000 to win £1,000, and your Christmas will be sorted.

In another popular festive market, William Hill and Ladbrokes have reported decent money for a White Christmas. Snow in London on the 25th is now a 9/4 possibility with Betfred and Stan James. Paddy Power won’t tempt any punters with 66/1 about Big Ben to stop working due to the frost!

Ricky Whittle is favourite to win this year’s Strictly Come Dancing, and can be backed at 8/11.

bookies.com compares specials markets online:

2009 Xmas Number One Betting Odds

Winner without X Factor Betting

Strictly Come Dancing Betting

White Christmas Betting

JLS have been described as the best band the show has ever seen, and have been cut once more into 7/1. The boy band from London do offer some each way value, and also a decent trading opportunity on Betfair over the next two weeks or so.

Recommendation:

2pts 7/1 JLS Outright Winners

My word have things changed! Diana was axed last weekend following a string of poor performances, meaning that Alexandra is the hot favourite to win. Let’s take a look at the remaining 3 contestants to see if there’s any value still to be found:

8/13 ALEXANDRA BURKE

Alexandra has been described as the most talented contestant for weeks now, and Diana’s eviction has seen her go odds-on from evens before last Saturday’s show. In the straight forecast market, favourite backers may like totesport’s 15/8 on 1st Alexandra – 2nd JLS. Bet365 also offer 2/7 that she beats Eoghan in a match bet – ‘free money’ I hear you say. She should take all the beating, and Simon Cowell has backed her to win. If she got turned over it wouldn’t be all that surprising, so i think she is too short to back. Performs with Westlife.

7/2 JLS

Saturday night made for some sensational in-running betting on Betfair. After the contestants had sung their 2 songs, Diana was the new 6/4 favourite to be evicted, even though JLS were still the 8/1 outsiders in the outright market. Layers clearly had their reasons, but to me it was a no-brainer. JLS were 1.70 on Betfair to be evicted before Diana had another shocker. I haven’t traded out my strong JLS position yet and I don’t intend to, in fact I am disappointed not to have taken the 10/1 that was readily available before Saturday’s show.

Aside from me, there have been other JLS supporters who have been backing them with their wallets and this week’s 9/2 and 4/1 has gone. I am particularly re-assured that they have displaced the blasted Eoghan as second favourites and they could prove popular on the night given that they’ll perform with Rihanna.

9/2 EOGHAN QUIGG

Those unfamiliar to the show should note that his first name is pronounced ‘Owen’. They should also note that he is dreadful. He is set to sing with Boyzone and has been very weak in the betting, cut to 11/10 in the next eviction market. I am tempted by those odds, because my hatred of him means that he’s clearly an odds-on shot. As I’m not ‘greening out’ of the JLS position, I won’t increase my liability by backing Eoghan to be evicted. I must be a rational punter and not bet with my heart!

Eoghan’s voice was overwhelmed by the backing singers on Saturday, and he just doesn’t do it for me. I cannot rely on his Irish support and won’t be indulging in Boylesports’ specials. They Irish firm make him 6/2 to record a duet with Diana in 2009, 16/1 to join an Abba tribute band or 2/1 to shave his head.

SkyBet have some X Factor specials, which offer typically poor value. You can get 33/1 that a finalist falls over on stage this weekend, or 5/1 that the winner is dropped by Sony BMG by the end of 2009. I can’t find any stunning bets for this weekend’s show, as all the contestants are pretty skinny prices by this stage.

X Factor Winner Betting

X Factor Winning Manager Betting

X Factor Straight Forecast Betting

X Factor Next Eviction Betting

X Factor Specials Betting

Danni Minogue Replacement Betting

Dannie Minogue to Continue Betting

The general consensus is that the winner of the X Factor will take the number one spot for Christmas Day. SkyBet make the X Factor contestants the overwhelming market leaders at 1/6, despite being recently eased in the betting from 1/7. The winner of the X Factor will release a cover of Leonard Cohen’s Hallelujah in time for Christmas, a song already performed by Diana Vickers on the show.

The choice of song was a source of controversy, as Simon Cowell appeared to be favouring Diana in the win market. He has already offered her a record deal should she not win, and Hallelujah certainly suits her vocal capabilities.

The X Factor winner market was turned on its head this weekend, as hot favourite Diana lost her position as market leader to 11/8 Alexandra. She has been a model of consistency, and is arguably the best singer on the show. Eoghan has the ‘cute factor’ and also has the potential to reach number one. Our X Factor tip, JLS, are 10/1 outsiders to win the competition.

The amount of terrestrial TV exposure received by the eventual winner of the X Factor means that he/she/they really ought to clinch the top spot in the charts. This has happened for the last 3 years, and there is no reason why they shouldn’t this year, but 1/6 is too short.

Aled Jones is next in the betting at 11/2, or 6/4 to win without the X Factor winner. Terry Wogan features in the background of the Bing Crosbie & David Bowie classic: Little Drummer Boy/Peace on Earth. Proceeds go towards the BBC charity Children in Need, and I feel the song could well gather momentum in the charts, even though it will be released on the 8th. Chris Evans described the song as magnificent, although he is also tied to the BBC.

The only other major threat to the X Factor winner is Leona Lewis. She is covering Snow Patrol’s Run, and is a 12/1 shot to be number one with SkyBet, or 3/1 in the market without the X Factor winner. The latter market looks like a straight match bet with Terry Wogan. Leona took the Christmas number one spot in 2006, and is a strong contender this year. I feel that she is more talented than any of the contestants on this year’s X Factor, but I doubt whether that can be replicated in the betting. Run is already available to download, so may not hold on until Christmas.

Another mention goes to 14/1 Peter Kay, who is releasing a single as his alter-ego Geraldine McQueen. We’ll hear it at the Royal Variety Performance on December 11, meaning that it will be seen be millions. Don’t be surprised if you then see the odds tumble.

Be sure to compare odds on a number of specials markets at bookies.com:

Christmas Number One Betting

Christmas Number One Without X Factor Winner Betting

Christmas Snow Betting

X Factor Winner Betting

X Factor Danni Minogue Replacement Betting